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Posted By : Drcheenu Posted On : Aug 13, 2017
Subject :The Field Marshal Sam Maneckshaw Memorial Trophy
This is a more interesting race, from study point of view, than the Eves Champions Trophy of the 8 races scheduled for today, 13.08.2017. I am going to express my thought process below as I read the race card of this race. I may not be correct at the conclusion but I imagine that it should provide the readers some insight.

IN MY DREAM: Rated at 61,this filly could not win her First career start, for that matter was bridesmaid in first 3 career starts, and finished 3rd in her 4th start before shedding maiden status against class 3 opposition in her 5th start. She had been beaten in her career by more illustrious peers, such as Germanicus, Bold March, Accolade & Temerity. You will agree In My Dream could not have beaten them as a maiden. After her maiden win win she was pitched in Fillies Trials where she finished 5th to Mrs Patmore. It seems she has suffered a minor set back and as was not seen racing thereafter. I am assuming she has been nursed back to sufficient fitness as evidenced by her close 3rd in a mock race. She is certainly a contender even though she is same class winner (SCW).

NELSON BLOOD: is a last start winner of this class. This gelding justified my faith by winning his first start in Pune in class 3. He was not a first start winner and cleared his maiden status in his 4th start in Lower class (Class 4).Mile is his forte and as such won pillar to post very nicely indeed. Normally an SCW is a discard in my method of handicapping. But if you see NB had won at a rating of 46 and is penalized just 10 points for that victory which makes him ineligible to compete in class 2 at 56 rating. He is a contender even though he is running within 2 weeks of his previous start.
VOLANTIS: This filly has cleared her maiden status in only her 7th start and in the assessment of the trainer is a runner with potential to win long distance races. She is a same class winner and has had a good preparation with a mock race & regular morning work outs. She is competing here because she is rated in this class like Nelsons Blood. My take is she would use this race as a preparatory gallop for some other longer distance race in future. Though cannot rule out entirely.

GLORIOUS EYES: This filly is a disappointment for me since I expected her to do well after she won her career first start and competed in a grade 3 race in her first season. She struggled to get her next victory in class 4, and was on board in her last 3 start in this class. I consider that she needs a much inferior company to register he next win. Not here.

TIMELESS: is the lone 3YO contender in this class 3 set. Registered his victory in his first start as a rank outsider (11/1odds), and ran on second & 3rd in his two subsequent starts to the well performed 3YOs, Tutankhamun & Ruffina. As a result was installed an favourite in his last start in which he performed well below par in that he came 7th out of 7 horses. He is being prepared meticulously in morning work and looks like a contender here. But it has been experience that whenever there is single 3YO in class 3 it loses more often than not.

JAGER BOMB: I don’t think I need to discuss much about this long in tooth gelding who is here either to make up the card or to aid somehow his stable mate. Discarded.

In the final analysis I am nominating IN MY DREAM as my pick since I feel she is far more classy than the other runners in this field.

Best of luck.
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  Vishnu G said ... On : 8/14/2017 1:14:46 PM
Chheenu in the Bible even God rested on a Sunday

  smart-still-poor-punter said ... On : 8/14/2017 12:43:23 PM
@ stop-fooling-punter

Not only the owner of 'Timeless', all owners run their horses only for their benefit and not to please the punters. There is nothing wrong in a stable concealing the abilities of a horse for some time, training it well and then going for the kill. If you also keep a close watch on the developments, you are also the beneficiary. But if you simply go by the odds, you are bound to end on the losing side, which is what precisely happening to 90% of punters.

  stop fooling punter said ... On : 8/14/2017 11:53:06 AM
Dr Cheenu the owner of Timeless is a outright gambling man.

In PBM it did not suit him so deliberately given a pathetic run.

He wants good odds at his terms.He told some one I knew few years back.
''I do not race horses for the public but myself''

  Drcheenu said ... On : 8/14/2017 10:35:23 AM
My dear Mad Max, I for one agree with you that 3yo holds an edge over 4yos in class 3. This is very much the norm in bangalore but in Pune & Mumbai there are quite a few exceptions. What I mean is in Bangalore there are quite a number of races framed for 4yo & over which I call age-group races so the 4yos & 5yo get good opportunity whereas under RWITC calendar not many races are age-group races and majority of races are open class.
I have to clarify here that I didn't rule out the chances of Timeless but only felt Iy Dream may have more class. Also I didn't stick to my time tested theory of SCW& pucca class and the results have proved my pick was wrong. I'm not disheartened though, as this has been one good lesson learnt. I'm always learning.

  mlk said ... On : 8/14/2017 8:19:32 AM
Dr. CHEENU

Sir don't loose heart it happens in racing some times theory fails. Most of the times we have been benefited by your theory. Please keep posting. I will be eagerly waiting for your postings.

Regards

  Mad Max said ... On : 8/14/2017 6:19:43 AM
In Class III, where 3 year olds are accepted along with 4 yrs old and over, 3 year old has the edge. Only exception was House of Commons (as Doosara of the owner) beating 3 year old WISE CHILD.

  us rao said ... On : 8/13/2017 7:43:59 PM
sir, no theory works constantly in racing . the cycle changes without notice. Infact I awas impressed with your earlier post where you said moon dancer may not win . But it won.but we should stick to our formula which in the long run gives us profits. If our system fails for 3 or 4 times understand that the cycle has changed.Regards. & keep posting.

  racebro said ... On : 8/13/2017 6:52:55 PM
Hi Drcheenu,
I was confident of Timeless who had runs in terms races and the only 3yr old, but after going thru your article I was convinced and backed both, double on IMD and recovery on Timeless. I just lost taxes.

Anyway this happens.


  PUNTER SERGEANT MAJOR said ... On : 8/13/2017 6:05:07 PM
Drcheenu
Never loose hope stick to the theory even i played In my dream, doesn't matter if SCW theory fails sometimes, form is temporary class is forever, sometimes we have to be flexible in racing, Timeless was better horse so won,yest i played Saladin using this theory 6/1

  drcheenu said ... On : 8/13/2017 3:08:47 PM
Another slap on my face. Timeless wins the race in handsome fashion. So the theory of SCW not winning stands good even though I wished otherwise.